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Publications | The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality

Publications

2023
Interactive Epistemology
Aumann, Robert J. . Interactive Epistemology. World Scientific, 2023. Web. Publisher's Version

Robert J Aumann has received numerous prizes, including the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for 2005.

With his 1976 paper, "Agreeing to Disagree", Robert Aumann pioneered the subject of interactive epistemology: the study of what people know, and what they know about what others know. Since then, the discipline has burgeoned enormously. This book documents Aumann's work leading to the 1976 paper and his subsequent contributions to the discipline. The scientific controversies emanating from his work are also included.

Karlinsky, Ariel, and Orsola Torrisi. The Casualties Of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate Of Lives Lost In The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Who and how many died in the 2020 Karabakh War? With limited evidence provided by authorities, media outlets, and human rights organizations, still little is known about the death toll caused by the 44-day conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper provides a first assessment of the human cost of the war. Using age–sex vital registration data from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the de facto Republic of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, we difference the 2020 observed mortality values from expected deaths based on trends in mortality between 2015 and 2019 to offer sensible estimates of excess mortality resulting from the conflict. We compare and contrast our findings with neighboring peaceful countries with similar mortality patterns and socio-cultural background and discuss them against the backdrop of the concurrent first wave of Covid-19. We estimate that the war led to almost 6,500 excess deaths among people aged 15–49. Nearly 2,800 excess losses occurred in Armenia, 3,400 in Azerbaijan, and 310 in de facto Artsakh. Deaths were highly concentrated among late adolescent and young adult males, suggesting that most excess mortality was directly related to combat. Beyond the human tragedy, for small countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan, such loss of young men represents a considerable long-term cost for future demographic, economic, and social development.
Msemburi, William et al. The Who Estimates Of Excess Mortality Associated With The Covid-19 Pandemic. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 2020. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries’ epidemic responses.

Heffetz, Ori, Ted O’Donoghue, and Henry S Schneider. A Note On The Identification Of Present Bias And Forgetting From Task-Completion Data. 2023. Print.Abstract

Recent work highlights that identification of present bias using task-completion data is problematic. In this note, we add to the literature in two ways. First, whereas prior work considers single-deadline tasks, we consider tasks for which there is a series of deadlines, with incremental penalties for missing each deadline. Second, we also consider identification of forgetting from the same type of data. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that identification of present bias is still problematic even when there are multiple deadlines. Identification of forgetting perhaps holds more promise theoretically, although in practice we suspect it too is problematic.

dp758.pdf
Gonczarowski, Yannai A., Ori Heffetz, and Clayton Thomas. Strategyproofness-Exposing Mechanism Descriptions. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A menu description defines a mechanism to player i in two steps. Step (1) uses the reports of other players to describe i's menu: the set of i's potential outcomes. Step (2) uses i's report to select i's favorite outcome from her menu. Can menu descriptions better expose strategyproofness, without sacrificing simplicity? We propose a new, simple menu description of Deferred Acceptance. We prove that—in contrast with other common matching mechanisms—this menu description must differ substantially from the corresponding traditional description. We demonstrate, with a lab experiment on two simple mechanisms, the promise and challenges of menu descriptions.

Dreyfuss, Bnaya et al. Deferred Acceptance With News Utility. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Can incorporating expectations-based-reference-dependence (EBRD) considerations reduce seemingly dominated choices in the Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism? We run two experiments (total N = 500) where participants are randomly assigned into one of four DA variants—{static, dynamic} × {student proposing, student receiving}—and play ten simulated large-market school assignment problems. While a standard, reference-independent model predicts the same straightforward behavior across all problems and variants, a news-utility EBRD model predicts stark differences across variants and problems. As the EBRD model predicts, we find that (i) across variants, dynamic student receiving leads to significantly fewer deviations from straightforward behavior, (ii) across problems, deviations increase with competitiveness, and (iii) within specific problems, the specific deviations predicted by the EBRD model are indeed those commonly observed in the data.

Dekel, Inbal et al. The Privacy Elasticity Of Behavior: Conceptualization And Application. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

We propose and initiate the study of privacy elasticity—the responsiveness of economic variables to small changes in the level of privacy given to participants in an economic system. Individuals rarely experience either full privacy or a complete lack of privacy; we propose to use differential privacy—a computer-science theory increasingly adopted by industry and government—as a standardized means of quantifying continuous privacy changes. The resulting privacy measure implies a privacy-elasticity notion that is portable and comparable across contexts. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach by estimating the privacy elasticity of public-good contributions in a lab experiment.

Heffetz, Ori, and Guy Ishai. Which Beliefs? Behavior-Predictive Beliefs Are Inconsistent With Information-Based Beliefs: Evidence From Covid-19. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

We investigate the relationship between (a) official information on COVID-19 infection and death case counts; (b) beliefs about such case counts, at present and in the future; (c) beliefs about average infection chance—in principle, directly calculable from (b); and (d) self-reported health-protective behavior. We elicit (b), (c), and (d) with a daily online survey in the US from March to August 2020 (N =~ 13,900). Beliefs about future infection cases are closely related to official information, but are inconsistent with beliefs about infection chances—risk perceptions—which are better predictors of reported behavior. We discuss potential implications for public communication of health-risk information.

Heffetz, Ori, and Daniel B Reeves. Measuring Unemployment In Crisis: Effects Of Covid-19 On Potential Biases In The Cps. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

From February to April 2020, as COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, the official unemployment rate (UR) climbed from 3.5 percent—the lowest in more than 50 years—to 14.7—the highest since measurement began in January 1948. This unprecedented, speedy quadrupling of UR coincided with major disruptions in survey-data-collection procedures and a dramatic, differential drop in response rates.

To what extent did measurement issues contribute to this quadrupling? We revisit two recently studied potential biases in the Current Population Survey: rotation group bias (Krueger, Mas and Niu, 2017) and difficulty-of-reaching bias (Heffetz and Reeves, 2019). We extend the original analyses to the years prior to the crisis and focus on the six months of peak UR, from April to September 2020. Our ballpark estimates suggest that the peak official UR figure could be biased by up to ~1.5 percentage points in either direction.

Heffetz, Ori . Expenditure Visibility And Consumer Behavior: New Evidence. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Expenditure visibility—the extent to which a household's spending on a consumption category is noticeable to others—is measured in three new surveys, with ~3,000 telephone and online respondents. Visibility shows little change across time (ten years) and survey methods. Four different notions, or dimensions, of visibility are measured: the noticeability of above-average spending on a category; that of below-average spending; and the positivity/negativity of impressions made by above- and below-average spending. Jointly, these visibility measures explain up to three quarters or more of the observed variation in total-expenditure elasticities across consumption categories in U.S. data. Possible theoretical explanations are explored.

Gordon-Hecker, Tom et al. Empathy For The Pain Of Others: Sensitivity To The Individual, Not To The Collective. 2023. Print.Abstract

Groups of people in pain evoke our empathic reactions. Yet how does one empathize with a group? Here, we aim to identify psychological mechanisms that underlie empathic reactions to groups. We theorize that because empathy is an egocentric process routed through the self, people are strongly attuned to the impact on each individual, and less so to the number of individuals affected. In five pre-registered experiments, involving different types of stimuli and valences of the outcomes, we repeatedly find that participants’ level of empathy depends on the pain experienced by each individual, but not on the number of individuals in the group. The experiments support our hypothesis and rule out alternative explanations such as limited numeric ability and strategic regulation of negative emotions, providing valuable insights into the phenomenon of scope insensitivity. The findings also bear implications for the ongoing debate on the role of empathy in public policy decisions.

dp751.pdf
Barneron, Meir, and Ilan Yaniv. Advice-Giving Under Conflict Of Interest: Context Enhances Self-Serving Behavior. 2023. Print.Abstract

Advisors face a conflict of interest when their interests and those of the recipients of their advice are misaligned. Conflicted advisors need to resolve the tension between two competing motives, the need to provide sincere advice that fulfills the recipient’s goals and the temptation to give advice that caters to their self-interest. We theorized that the choice context should affect selfish advice-giving. Our basic experimental condition presented the advisor with two alternative recommendations, one optimal for the recipient, and one preferable for the advisor. We hypothesized that introducing a third (inferior) alternative (in the context condition) should increase the advisor’s tendency to give selfish advice. In Study 1, advisors who were instructed to transmit a recommendation to an anonymous recipient, were more selfish in the context than in the basic condition. Study 2 further found that the effect was obtained when the third alternative was strictly dominated by the selfish recommendation. Studies 3-4 tested the idea that forewarning advisors about the need to explain their choices should moderate the effect. Study 5 tested the advisors’ awareness of the context effect. Studies 6-7 investigated the reactions of advice recipients and social observers to selfish advice-giving and found them also biased by context. Our theoretical account posits a reference-based evaluation process. This mechanism explains the advisors’ tendency to give selfish advice as well as the social actors’ reactions to the transmission of such advice. We discuss the context effect in relation to the asymmetric dominance effect, social preferences, and ethical decision making.

dp750.pdf
Barneron, Meir, Shoham Choshen-Hillel, and Ilan Yaniv. Reaping A Benefit At The Expense Of Multiple Others: How Are The Losses Of Others Counted?. 2023. Print.Abstract

We investigate individual decisions that produce gains for oneself, while imposing losses on a group of others. We theorize, based on the notion of empathy, that decision-makers consider the magnitude of the pain or loss they inflict on an individual in the group, but are largely insensitive to the number of individuals in the group who suffer losses. Studies involving personal choices or judgments of others’ choices largely confirmed these predictions. They also revealed a dispersion effect, whereby participants made more selfish choices, and judged others’ selfish choices more lightly, when the social losses were dispersed more thinly across a group. It appears that decision-makers’ empathy for others who suffer losses is not readily adjusted to the number of people affected or to the aggregated losses. It also appears that empathy mediates judgments of selfish behavior. The findings are related to theories of empathy, and decisions under conflicts of interest.

dp749.pdf
Bar-Hillel, Maya . על פול גרייס ואריה דרעי. 2023. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

פול גרייס הסביר כיצד הסקים משיח שונים מהסקים לוגיים מטיעונים. בפרט אפשר באמצעות תורתו להבין כיצד ניתן לרמות בלי לשקר. יש בכך כדי להאיר את עיסקת הטיעון של אריה דרעי. האם שיקר? האם רימה?

אני-הוא: האמפתיה בהיסטוריה, בחברה ובתרבות
כנפו-נעם, אריאל et al., eds. אני-הוא: האמפתיה בהיסטוריה, בחברה ובתרבות. מאגנס, 2023. Web. Publisher's Version

יש הסבורים כי עולמנו חסר מידה רבה יותר של אמפתיה, הבנה והשתתפות ברגשות הזולת ורצון לדאוג לרווחתו, ויש הטוענים שהאמפתיה היא דווקא יועצת רעה בקבלת החלטות. יש מי ששמים, דגש על אמפתיה בפרשנות של אמנות או סִפרות, וחשים שהיא נחוצה בכל מחקר היסטורי, בעוד שאחרים מאמינים שהיא מטה את דעתו של ההיסטוריון. כך או כך, לאמפתיה תפקיד מרכזי בחוויה האנושית, במערכות יחסים ובתרבות.

האמפתיה היא השתתפות ברגשות הזולת ורצון לדאוג לרווחתו. האמפתיה מאפשרת לשאול שאלות חדשות בקשר ליחסים בין יחידים וקבוצות, בין תחומים שונים כמו אמנות והיסטוריה, בין ההיסטוריון למושא מחקרו ובין היצירה למי שנחשף אליה.

ספר זה הוא תוצאה של מפגש ייחודי ובלתי-אמצעי בין חוקרים וחוקרות במדעי הרוח והחברה, שנמשך שלוש שנים במרכז מנדל סכוליון הפועל במסגרת בית הספר ע"ש ג'ק, ג'וזף ומורטון מנדל ללימודים מתקדמים במדעי הרוח באוניברסיטה העברית. המאמרים הנכללים בו יוצאים מגישות-מחקר שונות והם עוסקים בהיבטים חברתיים שונים שהאמפתיה זוכה בהם לביטוי. כולם יחד מצביעים על רוחב היריעה של הפעילות האמפתית בספרות ובאמנות הוויזואלית, בתחומי ההיסטוריה והפסיכולוגיה ובהקשרים הבין-אישיים.

2022
Moshe, Ran Ben . Comparing Mechanisms For Selling Correlated Goods. 2022. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Consider the problem of maximizing the revenue from selling a number of heterogeneous goods to a single buyer whose private values for the goods are drawn from a (possibly correlated) known distribution, and whose valuation for the goods is additive. It is already known that when there are two (or more) goods, simple mechanisms may yield only a negligible fraction of the optimal revenue. This thesis compares revenues from various classes of mechanisms to revenues from the two simplest mechanisms — selling the goods separately and selling them as a bundle — by using previously defined tools, namely, multiple of separated revenue (MoS) and multiple of bundled revenue (MoB). We show in particular that monotonic mechanisms cannot yield more than times the separated revenue (where  is the number of goods), and obtain bounds on the revenue of deterministic mechanisms.

Moshe, Ran Ben, Sergiu Hart, and Noam Nisan. Monotonic Mechanisms For Selling Multiple Goods. Discussion Papers 2022. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Maximizing the revenue from selling two or more goods has been shown to require the use of nonmonotonic mechanisms, where a higher-valuation buyer may pay less than a lower-valuation one. Here we show that the restriction to monotonic mechanisms may not just lower the revenue, but may in fact yield only a negligible fraction of the maximal revenue; more precisely, the revenue from monotonic mechanisms is no more than k times the simple revenue obtainable by selling the goods separately, or bundled (where k is the number of goods), whereas the maximal revenue may be arbitrarily larger. We then study the class of monotonic mechanisms and its subclass of allocation-monotonic mechanisms, and obtain useful characterizations and revenue bounds.

שלטון האושר
אילוז, אווה, and אדגר קבאנאס. שלטון האושר. כתר, 2022. Print.

החתירה אל האושר והפגנת אופטימיות וחיוביות לנוכח כל מצב הפכו ממטרה שרבים שואפים אליה לציווי חברתי רב־עוצמה שקשה לחמוק ממנו. האושר מכתיב את התנהגותנו ואת הציפיות שיש לנו מעצמנו ומאחרים כמעט בכל תחומי החיים. אך האם הוא אכן הטוב העליון שאליו ראוי שכולנו נתאווה?נראה שככה לפחות חושבים כל מומחי האושר החדשים, יחד עם הפסיכולוגים החיוביים, כלכלני האושר וכוהני הצמיחה האישית למיניהם. מגובים בתמיכה מצד מוסדות בעלי השפעה ותאגידים בינלאומיים עתירי ממון, אותם מומחים מטעם עצמם מציעים לנו את עזרתם האדיבה אך הנחרצת כדי להורות לנו איזו מדיניות ממשלתית יש לאמץ, באילו התערבויות חינוכיות יש לנקוט ואילו שינויים נידרש לעשות על מנת שחיינו יהיו משמעותיים, בריאים וטובים יותר.במישור האישי משתמע מכך גם המסר, שאם כשלנו במשימה הרי זוהי אשמתנו שלא השכלנו לגייס מוטיבציה מספקת ודבקות במטרה.

שלטון האושר מתעד וממפה בעזרת ספקנות בריאה את ההשפעה העצומה שיש למדע ולתעשיות האושר על חיינו וטוען שהברית הניאו־ליברלית בין הפסיכולוגים, הכלכלנים וכוהני העזרה העצמית הִצמיחה צורה דכאנית חדשה המשמשת באופן גלוי וסמוי כלי בידי בעלי אינטרסים שונים להפעיל אמצעים של שליטה וכוח במטרה לקדם את טובתם ולהכשיר מקרים של אי־שוויון מבני.אווה אילוז היא סוציולוגית ישראלית פורה בעלת שם עולמי. בין ספריה שראו אור בעברית: ’מדוע האהבה כואבת’ ו’סופה של האהבה’, שזכו להצלחה גדולה.אדגר קַבאנאס הוא פרופסור לפסיכולוגיה בספרד ושותף לצוות המחקר במכוןPLANCK MAXשבברלין לחקר היסטורי של הרגשות. זהו ספרו הראשון.

2021
Bar-Hillel, Maya . Stumpers: An Annotated Compendium. 2021. Web. SSRN Version (with more data)Abstract

A stumper is a riddle whose solution is typically so elusive that it does not come to mind, at least initially – leaving the responder stumped. Stumpers work by eliciting a (typically visual) representation of the narrative, in which the solution is not to be found. In order to solve the stumper, the blocking representation must be changed, which does not happen to most respondents. I have collected all the riddles I know at this time that qualify, in my opinion, as stumpers. I have composed a few, and tested many. Whenever rates of correct solutions were available, they are included, giving a rough proxy for difficulty.

Journal Version

Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart . &Quot;Calibeating&Quot;: Beating Forecasters At Their Own Game. Discussion Papers 2021. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Forecasters should be tested by the Brier score and not just by the calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement score; the latter measures how good the sorting into bins with the same forecast is, and thus attests to expertise.  This raises the question of whether one can gain calibration without losing expertise, which we refer to as calibeating.  We provide an easy way to calibeat any forecast, by a deterministic online procedure. We moreover show that calibeating can be achieved by a stochastic procedure that is itself calibrated, and then extend the results to simultaneously calibeating multiple procedures, and to deterministic procedures that are continuously calibrated.