Citation:
Foster, Ilan Yaniv, and Dean. “Precision And Accuracy Of Judgmental Estimation”. Discussion Papers 1997. Web.
Abstract:
Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgements and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgement and consider the role of accuracy-informativeness trade-off (Yaniv & Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration accuracy of subjective confidence intervals.