Game Theory and Mathematical Economics Research Seminar
Lecturer:
Guy Ishai (Hebrew University)
Title:
Belief Elicitation Using Binary-Choice Lists
Abstract:
Belief measurement methods based on binary-choice lists have desirable theoretical properties, but lack a framework unifying different methods to investigate the full potential of this approach. I theoretically characterize the kinds of information on subjective probability distributions that binary-choice lists elicit and construct the lists eliciting them, depending on the assumed preferences. I also investigate the relations between binary-choice lists and scoring rules. An impossibility result is that no method can improve on two popular binary-choice lists—probability matching and exchangeability—by eliciting the same information under weaker assumptions. I suggest a new binary-choice list eliciting subjective probabilities motivated by this impossibility.
Location:
Eilan Hall, Feldman Building, Second Floor, Edmond Safra Campus.