Comment: Laplace and Cognitive Illusions

Authors: 
Daniel Kahneman
Maya Bar-Hillel
Abstract: 

Reports in the 1970s of cognitive illusions in judgments of uncertainty had been anticipated by Laplace 150 years earlier. We discuss Miller and Gelman's remark that Laplace's anticipation of the main ideas of the heuristics and biases approach "gives us a new perspective on these ideas as more universal and less contingent on particular developments [that came much] later."

Date: 
June, 2020
Published in: 
Statistical Science, Vol. 35, No. 2, 2020, pp. 171-172
Number: 
735